First of all, thank you to all the people who voted for Mathew McCarthy in Neath, and especially if they also voted Liberal Democrat in the regional list ballot, so that Peter Black was returned to Cardiff. Peter got in by just 54 votes, and LibDem workers all over South Wales West – myself among them – will claim that it was their last-minute delivery of leaflets which made the difference. Congratulations go of course to Gwenda Thomas, who I know has a strong personal following in the constituency.

I’ve had ten days to reflect, but my thoughts are little different from those in the immediate aftermath of the election.  Welsh Labour fought largely on the implicit slogan: “We are not led by Nick Clegg.” How much this was Carwyn Jones’ own choice, it would be interesting to know. Some of the negative material which turned up in Wales related to cuts and health service restructuring which applied only in England. (If London-generated material had also been used in Scotland, that might account for Labour’s poor showing north of the border.) On political grounds, one cannot fault the Labour strategists, because it worked, aided by the dominant position of English media here.

Plaid lost seats, as junior partners emerging from a coalition usually do. Their strategy was to attack Labour as if they had been in opposition throughout the life of the Welsh Assembly, rather than in partnership government for the last four years. I see that Lord Elis-Thomas has denounced the campaign as “mindless” and opined that the nationalists should instead have celebrated their joint working with Labour. With respect to his Lordship, it is difficult to see how that would overcome the “junior partner” syndrome.

Conservatives did surprisingly well, building on their success at the last European elections in Wales. I was surprised, though, that Labour did not question their commitment to the NHS in Wales, and whether it concealed an ambition for a reorganisation along the lines of that of Andrew Lansley in England.

Liberal Democrats lost one seat, perhaps significantly in the most English-facing of regions,  South Wales East. We did not suffer as badly as our colleagues in Scotland or in local government in England. Part of that may be due to the three Welsh Liberal Democrat MPs publicly sticking to their promise to vote against higher tuition fees. Part certainly was down to Kirsty Williams’ leadership.

Kirsty has already announced that, as Labour are the largest party in the new Senedd with half the seats, she expected Carwyn Jones to form an administration. She went on: “I have already spoken to Carwyn and offered my congratulations. The stability in government that Carwyn Jones seeks will only be possible if parties work together, put aside their differences and seek to find consensus, and that means give and take from all parties. The  priority of the Welsh Liberal Democrats now will be to work to advance the policies that we have fought this election on. It is clear that Wales is suffering from a weak economy and serious failings in our schools and NHS. Where Labour proposes serious answers to these problems, they will have our support.” One might add to the agenda the items of waste identified every day of the LibDem campaign. At least we can look forward to the end of the million-pound subsidy of the north-south air service, which seemed to be the one major achievement of Plaid in government.

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