The head of Economic Development has helpfully put together statistics on unemployment in the county borough. The percentages of claimants are tabulated by ward. Unsurprisingly, Cadoxton scores well on this measure. At 2.6%, it is only just pipped by Rhos at 2.5%. The comparable figure for Neath parliamentary constituency as a whole is 4.3%, and for Aberavon, 4.7%. These are not far out of line with Wales as a whole (which in turn is only slightly higher than the UK percentage), but conceal some wards with really high unemployment, 10-12%.

The Labour Force Survey figures (a measure preferred by professionals) show Wales in a slightly worse light: in the last quarter of 2009, Wales registered 8.6% unemployment as against 7.8% for the UK. A breakdown by local authority area is not available.

These figures bear out the warning that, though UK is technically no longer in recession, firms are continuing to fire people in order to survive. Banks have swung from over-optimistic business lending four years ago, to over-caution now. Even where larger organisations can manage to shrink without having to sack staff because of the normal turnover of employees (this is the situation with Neath Port Talbot CBC), this creates “silent firings”; i.e., jobs are no longer available to those – typically school-leavers – in the dole queue.

If there is one bright spot for South Wales, it is the observation that manufacturing areas tend to come out of recession first. There are signs – Ford in Bridgend, and (possibly) Toyoda in Swansea – that not only are new manufacturing jobs being created, but they are in the arena of low-carbon technology, which has a future. Perhaps we may even see the long-empty premises on the Baglan Energy Park occupied before too long.

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